Events
Mythic+ Comps, Total Keystones, Dungeon Success Rates, & Spec Popularity (Week 13)
We’re here with the last Data Dive of the year! With less than 2 weeks until it’s 2025 (time flies!), we thought we’d take this opportunity to take a look back at how the Mythic+ ecosystem of The War Within has, so far, compared with past expansions.
We’ve been seeing a lot of discourse on social media, forums, and online communities the past number of weeks regarding the status of Mythic+ in The War Within. Specifically, there have been many comments along the lines of “Mythic+ is dead!”, “Nobody does keys anymore”, “LFG is empty”, and more. Now, as we all know, the Warcraft playerbase is never one to be overdramatic…🙄 so while we feel absolutely confident in taking those statements at face value, we figured we’d take a look. Just to be sure.
To do this, we’ve got some comparative data to show between the past few expansions, specifically looking at their first Seasons. Are there really fewer dungeons being done in The War Within than Dragonflight and Shadowlands? Did past expansions have such a clear-cut “meta”, leaving many feeling unwelcome in higher keys?
Let’s Dive into the Data and find out!
Table of Contents
Affixes & Keystone Thresholds
DUNGEON AFFIXES
For a quick reminder, here’s how the Mythic+ Affixes work in The War Within:
As of the start of Week 7, Blizzard implemented a nerf to the Challenger’s Peril affix, whereby the time penalty per death will remain at 15 seconds, but the affix will add an additional 90 seconds to the overall dungeon timer. This nerf was applied retroactively, and has been in place since.
KEYSTONE THRESHOLDS
The graphs used in our Data Dives to display the most popular group compositions for timed keystones completed all use the following keystone thresholds:
| KEYSTONE LEVEL | AFFIXES |
|---|---|
| +2 to +6 | Xal’atath’s Bargain + Fortified or Tyrannical |
| +7 to +9 | All of +2 to +6, and Challenger’s Peril |
| +10 to +11 | All of +2 to +9, and the other of Fortified or Tyrannical |
| +12 to +16 | Xal’atath’s Guile + Fortified and Tyrannical |
| +16 and Up | Xal’atath’s Guile + Fortified and Tyrannical |
NOTE
We have again opted to change the keystone ranges for examining keystone data to better reflect the user experience. We’ve maintained the previous change where the +7 to +11 range was split into two separate categories: +7 to +9 and +10 to +11, but now we’re also splitting the +12 and Up range. As keystones are being pushed higher, we recognize that there is a stark difference between a +12 and what we’re seeing at the top of the Leaderboards. You’ll now see the previous +12 and Up range be limited to +12 to +16, and we’ve introduced a +16 and Up range on all graphs.
Most Popular Group Compositions
These graphs show the top 30 group compositions used during Week 13 for timed Keystones at each of the designated thresholds (see above).
The Xal’atath’s Bargain affix for Week 13 was Xal’atath’s Bargain: Oblivion, and the first “Base Affix” added at +4 was Tyrannical.
The trends across all key levels continue, with the same specs being used frequently along the most popular group compositions. With likely a couple of months remaining in the Season, we don’t anticipate this data to change much. Earlier today, the WoW team gave us an inside look at what’s to come in Season 2, including an early peek at some of the anticipated tier sets. As more information comes out, it will be interesting to see if there is anything that might have an impact on the Mythic+ meta and ecosystem.
Success Rates by Dungeon
Our next Data Dive staple is our examination into how often groups were able to successfully time each of the Dungeons available for Mythic+ in Season 1, at various keystone levels. Instead of looking at the same keystone ranges as above, we will now hone in on some specific levels that players may be targeting for gear rewards. We’ve also added the newest +16 and Up range for those of you that are looking to push to the top of the Leaderboards!
To illustrate the Success Rates, we use a Box Plot graph.
What is a Box Plot Graph?
Unsure how to interpret a Box Plot? Click here for a quick rundown.
We introduced these graphs indicating Success Rate by Dungeon because we believe they can help your dungeon groups make informed decisions. If your goal is to time any dungeon at level +9 or +10 to get Gilded Crests and/or Mythic-level gear, or if you’re trying to get Heroic-level gear at +7, these graphs can help you determine which dungeons will statistically give you the higher chances of success!
WHAT DOES THIS DATA MEAN FOR ME?
We are not seeing much difference in the above graphs on a week-by-week basis at this point. What this tells us is that the routes, by and large, have all been figured out, and where each dungeon sits in difficulty comparative to the others has normalized.
Grim Batol continues to be problematic, especially on the higher end of keystone levels. If your goal is to run +10s or higher for Mythic-level Vault gear, this data suggests that you might want to avoid GB, and instead should opt for Mists of Tirna Scithe and The Dawnbreaker for the highest chances of success. Ara-Kara, City of Echoes also looks to have a strong success rate, but you’ll want to take notice of the Whiskers for this dungeon compared to Mists and Dawnbreaker. There’s more variance in success – meaning that if you head to Ara-Kara, you have a good chance of timing the dungeon, but it is by no means guaranteed.
We’ve included a table at the bottom of this graph to give another way of representing the data. It’s the same information powering the graph itself, but simply another visualization. We hope this might help some people make more sense of the graph.
HOW TO INTERPRET BOX PLOT GRAPHS
The X-Axis shows Time Remaining as % of Dungeon Timer. As 0% means a dungeon was completed, in-time, at the exact timer (00:00:00 time remaining), higher numbers (5% and up) mean that the dungeon was completed with time remaining. The higher the number, the faster the dungeon was completed by percentage of the timer. Dungeons on the left of 0% were thus depleted, and where they land on the X-Axis shows by what percentage of the timer they were depleted.
The box in the middle of each bar shows the Inter Quartile Range, or IQR. This is where the middle 50% of dungeons fall. If the box is small, it indicates that dungeon completion times were very consistent. If the box is large, it means there is greater variability in completion times.
The line in the middle of the box represents the Median Clear Time. If this line is closer to the left of the box, this indicates the distribution is skewed towards slower times, and vice versa.
The Whiskers, the lines that come out of each side of the box, indicate the range of the data outside the IQR (the middle 50% of all dungeons completed). This shows how far the data spreads. If the Whiskers are long, it suggests there is a wide range of dungeon clear times, suggesting the performance varies more. Shorter Whiskers indicate more consistent results, and if they are asymmetrical, it shows that the data is skewed in a particular direction (depleted vs. completed in-time).
Outliers are singular dungeons that fall way out of the range. We have only chosen to show positive outliers, meaning dungeons that were completed significantly faster than the average. Those are represented by a dot, should they exist.
Mythic+ Dungeon Participation - Expansion Comparison
With our NEW Raider.IO Stats feature, we’re able to go back and see data from previous expansions. This week, we’ve opted to make some comparisons between The War Within and some previous expansions to really get a sense of how much the playerbase is engaging with the Mythic+ system. As we mentioned above, this is in an attempt to show the data behind claims such as “Mythic+ is dead or dying” that we’re seeing so much of recently.
Is it just hyperbole, or are there really so few Mythic+ dungeons being done at this point in the Season? Find out below!
In this set of graphs, we’ve compiled how many Mythic+ dungeons were attempted during each week of Season 1 of the last four expansions. The red section on each bar represents how many dungeons were depleted, while blue represents timed. We’ve also included a handy table at the bottom for another way to visualize the same data.
We only included the first 13 Weeks for each of the past expansions, for an accurate comparison of where the Season is at currently. NOTE: Mythic+ did not begin until Week 4 in Dragonflight, and Week 2 in Shadowlands, so we expanded those graphs so that each Season shows the first 13 Weeks of the Mythic+ Season.
As much as we hate to say it, there may actually be some credence behind the claims that Mythic+ participation is at an all-time low. There will always be a drop-off in participation as the Season progresses, but The War Within is the only one with such a steady decline.
Additionally, in the 13th Week of the Season, the number of Mythic+ dungeons being completed for TWW is not even reaching ⅓ of the 1st Week numbers. We didn’t see that kind of drop-off in either Dragonflight or Shadowlands. We did see a similar effect in Battle of Azeroth, but if the goal is for each expansion to improve and grow the Mythic+ system, seeing BFA numbers is likely not a sign that things are moving in the right direction.
While BFA numbers are slightly lower than TWW, we still think the argument that Mythic+ is at an all-time low has some bearing. Technically speaking, the decline from Week 1 to Week 13 is slightly larger in The War Within, as Mythic+ engagement in BFA never reached the same peak as our current expansion. The numbers were always lower across the board.
The Dragonflight graph is a pretty good example of a successful Mythic+ Season, and what we would have expected and wanted to see in The War Within. Blizzard made some pretty substantial changes to the Mythic+ system this expansion, many of which we were very excited for. However, if the community consensus is that the level squish and difficulty changes were too extreme. Many players are finding Mythic+ content too difficult to engage with in pug groups, which will understandably result in a decrease in overall runs being completed.
We sincerely hope that Blizzard implements some improvements going forward. Obviously with the significant changes to the Mythic+ system that were brought in with The War Within, there’s going to be some growing pains, and some experiments. Sometimes you just need to try something new to learn that it’s not going to work like you initially hoped. We’re eager to see what Blizzard brings to the table in Season 2!
Popular Specs by Role - Expansion Comparison
In continuation of our expansion comparisons, this week we’re looking at what the top-key meta has looked like, at this point in the Season, for the past three expansions! The graphs below are sorted by Role, so we have a set of TANK graphs, a set of HEALER graphs, and a set of DPS graphs. For The War Within, we’ve opted to show all keystones from +16 and Up, and for both Dragonflight and Shadowlands, we went with +20 and Up. We believe these are the keystone thresholds that, at this point in each of the respective expansions, would have been considered “high keys”. It’s also only showing Weeks 1-13 of each of the first Seasons of the expansions.
Did Dragonflight and Shadowlands have such strict and narrow metas as The War Within, or were more classes and specs being used in high keys? Did the playerbase at large feel the need to re-roll just to be able to push dungeons, or simply give up if that wasn’t an option? Let’s find out!
NEW: Raider.IO Stats Feature!
Have you been enjoying the Data Dive series? Have you been wishing you could access the data and graphs that we use to create these weekly pieces for yourself? Curious about a specific week, role, keystone level, or other perspectives on the vast Mythic+ data that Raider.IO collects? Well, you’re in luck!
We’re happy to cap off 2024 with a BIG announcement – the Raider.IO Stats feature is finally here! That’s right, you can now create your own graphs, tables, and data sets to see exactly what’s going on in the World of Warcraft. How are players engaging with the content? We’ve got the numbers!
The feature is currently in early access for Beta Testing and is available only to Raider.IO Patrons at this stage. It will be released to all users soon.
At this initial launch stage, the feature allows visualization of data from Mythic+ only. You can see game-wide data at the Stats landing page, but you can also see Character-specific data on any Character profile! Just click the Stats button on a Character profile, and it will bring up the Stats feature right there. This feature is intended to be foundational, meaning we plan to build upon it, with things such as Raid data, user data, and more.
We hope you enjoy the new feature, and please provide us with any feedback in our Discord!
Hey WoW Esports fans, have you seen our new Events Insights and Events Standings pages? If you like our Data Dives, you’ll love the statistics available in easy-to-digest graphs and charts!
Stay tuned for more Data Dives!
NOTE
We at 
firmly believe that you can complete Mythic+ dungeons and achieve success with ANY group composition. We are providing this data for information purposes only, and not to advocate for any kind of meta. In fact, we’re known for Breaking the Meta as much as possible!
firmly believe that you can complete Mythic+ dungeons and achieve success with ANY group composition. We are providing this data for information purposes only, and not to advocate for any kind of meta. In fact, we’re known for Breaking the Meta as much as possible!Links
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About the Author
Hulahoops is the General Manager of Raider.IO and has been playing WoW since Vanilla. She has recently returned to Retail after a brief foray into Classic WoW. In her hey-day, Hulahoops could be found raid-leading in Mythic Progression, or competing in the MDI with her team Angry Toast. Although she can usually be found on a Havoc Demon Hunter these days, Hulahoops is a Paladin in every sense of the term: she moderates the Hammer of Wrath Paladin Class Discord, and she was a practicing Lawyer for 7 years. Judgement isn't just a spell! Hulahoops decided to put the law books away and follow her passion for gaming and esports by joining the team at Raider.IO. In her capacity as General Manager, Hulahoops oversees events, content, and more!
About the Editor
VitaminP (VP) is the Content Manager of Raider.IO. VP holds a Master’s degree in Business Administration and has worked for Raider.IO since the formation of its News Section in November 2018. VP specializes in tanking classes and has loved doing competitive Mythic+ on and off since early Legion.