Mythic+ Group Comps, Total Completed Keystones, & Dungeon Success Rates (Week 9)

Another reset ends, another week of Mythic+ data is here for us to dive into! Week 9 of Season 1 comes to an end, and the late season meta seems to have fully solidified. Barring any massive tuning changes before 11.1, we do not expect any more shifts in class composition data.

In this week’s Data Dive, we’re once again looking at the most popular group compositions in Mythic+, success rates of the Season 1 dungeons, as well as continuing our look at the total number of timed dungeons week by week.

This weekend marks the Global Finals of the Mythic Dungeon International, so keep your eyes out for a special MDI edition in next week’s Data Dive! Make sure you check out the action on the Official Warcraft Twitch and YouTube Channels, starting at 10am PST this Friday!

Table of Contents

Affixes & Keystone Thresholds

DUNGEON AFFIXES

For a quick reminder, here’s how the Mythic+ Affixes work in The War Within:


As of the start of Week 7, Blizzard implemented a nerf to the Challenger’s Peril affix, whereby the time penalty per death will remain at 15 seconds, but the affix will add an additional 90 seconds to the overall dungeon timer. This nerf appears to have been applied retroactively, and has been in place since.

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KEYSTONE THRESHOLDS

The graphs used in our Data Dives to display the most popular group compositions for timed keystones completed all use the following keystone thresholds:

KEYSTONE LEVEL	AFFIXES
+2 to +6	Xal’atath’s Bargain + Fortified or Tyrannical
+7 to +9	All of +2 to +6, and Challenger’s Peril
+10 to +11	All of +2 to +9, and the other of Fortified or Tyrannical
+12 and Up	Xal’atath’s Guile + Fortified and Tyrannical

Most Popular Group Compositions

These graphs show the top 5 group compositions used during Week 9 for timed Keystones at each of the designated thresholds (see above).

The Xal’atath’s Bargain affix for Week 9 was Xal’atath’s Bargain: Ascendant, and the first “Base Affix” added at +2 was Tyrannical.

Last week we noted that the Paladin takeover was complete, with Protection Paladins in the top 5 comps for every keystone threshold in Week 8. The trend not only continued into Week 9, but is now the only tank class visible on the above graphs, including the Season 1 Overall for +12 and Up.

We did add a new graph this Week, as we want to get a closer look at the higher end of keystones currently being timed. As we’ve now seen +18s completed for all but Grim Batol and The Stonevault, we’ll continue to look at the compositions being used for +16s and Up going forward. The groups pushing the envelope are typically the catalysts to any meta changes, so we’ll be keeping an eye on what they’re up to!

Success Rates by Dungeon

Next up is our other Data Dive staple, as we examine how often groups were able to successfully time each of the Dungeons available for Mythic+ in Season 1, at various keystone levels. Instead of looking at the same keystone ranges as above, we will now hone in on some specific levels that players may be targeting for gear rewards.

To illustrate the Success Rates, we use a Box Plot graph.


We wanted to introduce these graphs indicating Success Rate by Dungeon because we believe they can help your dungeon groups make informed decisions. If your goal is to time any dungeon at level +9 or +10 to get Gilded Crests and/or Mythic-level gear, or if you’re trying to get Heroic-level gear at +7, these graphs can help you determine which dungeons will statistically give you the higher chances of success!

WHAT DOES THIS DATA MEAN FOR ME?

We are not seeing much difference in the above graphs on a week-by-week basis at this point. What this tells us is that the routes, by and large, have all been figured out, and where each dungeon sits in difficulty comparative to the others has normalized.

Grim Batol continues to be the dungeon with the lowest success rate as soon as we hit the +10 threshold, and it’s a significant jump downwards. If your goal is to run +10s for Mythic-level Vault gear, this data suggests that you might want to avoid GB, and instead should opt for Mists of Tirna Scithe and The Dawnbreaker for the highest chances of success. Ara-Kara, City of Echoes also looks to have a strong success rate, but you’ll want to take notice of the Whiskers for this dungeon compared to Mists and Dawnbreaker. There’s more variance in success – meaning that if you head to Ara-Kara, you have a good chance of timing the dungeon, but it is by no means guaranteed.

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HOW TO INTERPRET BOX PLOT GRAPHS

The X-Axis shows Time Remaining as % of Dungeon Timer. As 0% means a dungeon was completed, in-time, at the exact timer (00:00:00 time remaining), higher numbers (5% and up) mean that the dungeon was completed with time remaining. The higher the number, the faster the dungeon was completed by percentage of the timer. Dungeons on the left of 0% were thus depleted, and where they land on the X-Axis shows by what percentage of the timer they were depleted.

The box in the middle of each bar shows the Inter Quartile Range, or IQR. This is where the middle 50% of dungeons fall. If the box is small, it indicates that dungeon completion times were very consistent. If the box is large, it means there is greater variability in completion times.

The line in the middle of the box represents the Median Clear Time. If this line is closer to the left of the box, this indicates the distribution is skewed towards slower times, and vice versa.

The Whiskers, the lines that come out of each side of the box, indicate the range of the data outside the IQR (the middle 50% of all dungeons completed). This shows how far the data spreads. If the Whiskers are long, it suggests there is a wide range of dungeon clear times, suggesting the performance varies more. Shorter Whiskers indicate more consistent results, and if they are asymmetrical, it shows that the data is skewed in a particular direction (depleted vs. completed in-time).

Outliers are singular dungeons that fall way out of the range. We have only chosen to show positive outliers, meaning dungeons that were completed significantly faster than the average. Those are represented by a dot, should they exist.

Total Mythic+ Dungeons Completed

In this new set of graphs, we’re looking at the Total Number of Mythic+ Dungeons Completed at the various keystone ranges, on a Week to Week basis. These graphs show only dungeons that were completed in-time, so it’s important to note that depleted keystones are not represented here.

The data pretty much speaks for itself, but we do really enjoy this set of graphs and how the progression of the playerbase as a whole has shifted to higher keystones. As expected, the +7 to +9 range is pretty consistent-ish from Week to Week, while the lower keystones decrease as players move up to higher levels and rewards.

In Week 9 there was actually a fairly noticeable drop-off in dungeons completed across All keystones, with the +12 and Up threshold being the only level range where more dungeons were completed compared to the week prior. The +10 to +11 range had been seeing a steady climb every week, but also dropped back down.

Insights

The Season 1 meta has firmly taken root as we see Week 9 come to an end. Protection Paladins and Discipline Priests are leading the charge, with their damage dealers of choice being limited to a relatively small group.

It is interesting to note that there does seem to be a distinct lack of Ranged DPS in the meta. Yes, we are seeing some Destruction Warlocks, Balance Druids, and Frost Mages in the top groups, but that is typically accompanied by either 2 Melee DPS, or 1 Melee and an Augmentation Evoker, which is its own thing, really.

This is in stark difference to almost the entirety of Dragonflight, where Ranged DPS, especially Fire Mages, Balance Druids, and Shadow Priests ruled the day.

We dare say we’ve been due for a good Melee meta… but maybe a buff to Havoc DH wouldn’t hurt? 🥺

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Don’t forget about the MDI Global Finals taking place this weekend! If you’re not able to watch the action, we’ve got you covered with LIVE updates, coverage, highlights, and analysis. Raider.IO is your best resource for WoW Esports!

Stay tuned for more Data Dives, including a special MDI roundup after the Global Finals!

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