Mythic+ Group Comps, Total Completed Keystones, & Dungeon Success Rates (Week 10)

With a new patch coming on December 17th and class tuning at the start of this week, there’s a chance that we’ll see some of this data change over the holiday season. For now, as Week 10 of Season 1 comes to an end, it’s certainly business as usual as far as Mythic+ goes.

In this week’s Data Dive, we’re once again examining the most popular group compositions in Mythic+, success rates of the Season 1 dungeons, and continuing our look at the total number of timed dungeons week by week. We’ve also made some changes to the keystone level thresholds to better observe the progression of the Season.

In other big Mythic+ news, the Mythic Dungeon International Global Finals took place last weekend – and Mandatory are your Grand Champions! They beat Perplexed in a pressure cooker of a series for the title. To celebrate their win, we’ve released a Special Edition Mythic+ Replay Set, where you can race LIVE against all of Mandatory’s best dungeons from this MDI Season. Go check it out!

Oh, and Break the Meta is back. Just thought you should know😏

Table of Contents

Affixes & Keystone Thresholds

DUNGEON AFFIXES

For a quick reminder, here’s how the Mythic+ Affixes work in The War Within:


As of the start of Week 7, Blizzard implemented a nerf to the Challenger’s Peril affix, whereby the time penalty per death will remain at 15 seconds, but the affix will add an additional 90 seconds to the overall dungeon timer. This nerf appears to have been applied retroactively, and has been in place since.

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KEYSTONE THRESHOLDS

The graphs used in our Data Dives to display the most popular group compositions for timed keystones completed all use the following keystone thresholds:

KEYSTONE LEVEL	AFFIXES
+2 to +6	Xal’atath’s Bargain + Fortified or Tyrannical
+7 to +9	All of +2 to +6, and Challenger’s Peril
+10 to +11	All of +2 to +9, and the other of Fortified or Tyrannical
+12 to +16	Xal’atath’s Guile + Fortified and Tyrannical
+16 and Up	Xal’atath’s Guile + Fortified and Tyrannical

Most Popular Group Compositions

These graphs show the top 5 group compositions used during Week 10 for timed Keystones at each of the designated thresholds (see above).

The Xal’atath’s Bargain affix for Week 10 was Xal’atath’s Bargain: Oblivion, and the first “Base Affix” added at +2 was Fortified.

The trends across all key levels continue, with Protection Paladins, Discipline Priests, and Enhancement Shamans being used pretty much across the board. Once we hit the highest keystone levels, the standard Retribution Paladin slot continues to go the way of the Augmentation Evoker. We do see the odd Elemental Shaman poking its head in, but for the most part these graphs are static with just some variance week-to-week on the fifth and final spot. Some weeks the Frost DKs comes out ahead of the Assassination Rogue, and sometimes not. It’s veritable chaos.

As mentioned, there was some pretty big class tuning that was just pushed, including nerfs to both Protection Paladins and Enhancement Shamans. We’re keen to see how the data shifts moving forward. Will the nerfs be enough for the meta to change?

Success Rates by Dungeon

It’s time for our next Data Dive staple, as we examine how often groups were able to successfully time each of the Dungeons available for Mythic+ in Season 1, at various keystone levels. Instead of looking at the same keystone ranges as above, we will now hone in on some specific levels that players may be targeting for gear rewards. We’ve also added the newest +16 and Up range for those of you that are looking to push to the top of the Leaderboards!

To illustrate the Success Rates, we use a Box Plot graph.


We wanted to introduce these graphs indicating Success Rate by Dungeon because we believe they can help your dungeon groups make informed decisions. If your goal is to time any dungeon at level +9 or +10 to get Gilded Crests and/or Mythic-level gear, or if you’re trying to get Heroic-level gear at +7, these graphs can help you determine which dungeons will statistically give you the higher chances of success!

WHAT DOES THIS DATA MEAN FOR ME?

We are not seeing much difference in the above graphs on a week-by-week basis at this point. What this tells us is that the routes, by and large, have all been figured out, and where each dungeon sits in difficulty comparative to the others has normalized.

Grim Batol continues to be the dungeon with the lowest success rate as soon as we hit the +10 threshold, and it’s a significant jump downwards. If your goal is to run +10s or higher for Mythic-level Vault gear, this data suggests that you might want to avoid GB, and instead should opt for Mists of Tirna Scithe and The Dawnbreaker for the highest chances of success. Ara-Kara, City of Echoes also looks to have a strong success rate, but you’ll want to take notice of the Whiskers for this dungeon compared to Mists and Dawnbreaker. There’s more variance in success – meaning that if you head to Ara-Kara, you have a good chance of timing the dungeon, but it is by no means guaranteed.

It is interesting to note that with the addition of the new graph showing only dungeons at +16 and Up, Necrotic Wake actually jumps to the top in terms of success rate. It would appear the groups running the highest dungeons have really fine-tuned their routes and strats for this dungeon!

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HOW TO INTERPRET BOX PLOT GRAPHS

The X-Axis shows Time Remaining as % of Dungeon Timer. As 0% means a dungeon was completed, in-time, at the exact timer (00:00:00 time remaining), higher numbers (5% and up) mean that the dungeon was completed with time remaining. The higher the number, the faster the dungeon was completed by percentage of the timer. Dungeons on the left of 0% were thus depleted, and where they land on the X-Axis shows by what percentage of the timer they were depleted.

The box in the middle of each bar shows the Inter Quartile Range, or IQR. This is where the middle 50% of dungeons fall. If the box is small, it indicates that dungeon completion times were very consistent. If the box is large, it means there is greater variability in completion times.

The line in the middle of the box represents the Median Clear Time. If this line is closer to the left of the box, this indicates the distribution is skewed towards slower times, and vice versa.

The Whiskers, the lines that come out of each side of the box, indicate the range of the data outside the IQR (the middle 50% of all dungeons completed). This shows how far the data spreads. If the Whiskers are long, it suggests there is a wide range of dungeon clear times, suggesting the performance varies more. Shorter Whiskers indicate more consistent results, and if they are asymmetrical, it shows that the data is skewed in a particular direction (depleted vs. completed in-time).

Outliers are singular dungeons that fall way out of the range. We have only chosen to show positive outliers, meaning dungeons that were completed significantly faster than the average. Those are represented by a dot, should they exist.

Total Mythic+ Dungeons Completed

As we continue with this newer set of graphs, we’re looking at the Total Number of Mythic+ Dungeons Completed at the various keystone ranges, on a week-to-week basis. These graphs show only dungeons that were completed in-time, so it’s important to note that depleted keystones are not represented here.

The data pretty much speaks for itself, but we do really enjoy this set of graphs and how the progression of the playerbase as a whole has shifted to higher keystones. As expected, the +7 to +9 range is pretty consistent-ish from week to week, while the lower keystones decrease as players move up to higher levels and rewards.

In Week 10 we see the trend from last week continue, where the highest threshold was the only one that saw an increase in dungeons completed. In fact, the +12 to +16 saw less dungeons than both Weeks 9 and 8, but the +16 and Up category saw a substantial rise.

Break the Meta

Instead of our usual Insights portion this Week, we want to let you know that Break the Meta is back! The Seasonal event was announced a couple of days ago, and we’re excited for yet another round of amazing prizes, keystone group comps, and shenanigans.

We’ve spent so many weeks talking about the Mythic+ meta, and analyzing its progression… now it’s time to go throw it out the window!

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Hey WoW Esports fans, have you seen our new Events Insights and Events Standings pages? If you like our Data Dives, you’ll love the statistics available in easy-to-digest graphs and charts!

Stay tuned for more Data Dives!

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