Most Popular Mythic+ Group Comps & Dungeon Success Rates (Week 4)

Week 4 of Season 1 has come to an end, and we’ve now seen each of the new Xal’atath’s Bargain affixes. The Season is definitely starting to heat up – we saw the World First +15 Dungeon completed in time for the Season, and many more since (including a +16… wow!)

For this week’s Data Dive, we’ll continue to look at the evolution of the top group compositions being used at the various keystone level thresholds, as well as the dungeon success rates at various keystone levels. MDI Time Trials start later today, so we’ll be keeping our eyes out to see how these group compositions being used on live servers compare to that being used on the Tournament Realm.

For a quick reminder, here’s how the Mythic+ Affixes work in The War Within:



For the first part of this week’s Data Dive, we’ll be looking at the most popular group compositions used for timed keystones completed for the following ranges:

KEYSTONE LEVEL	AFFIXES
+2 to +6	Xal’atath’s Bargain + Fortified or Tyrannical
+7 to +11	Challenger’s Peril
+12 and Up	Xal’atath’s Guile + Fortified and Tyrannical

Table of Contents

Keystone Levels: +2 to +6

This graph shows the top 5 group compositions used during Week 4 for timed Keystones between levels +2 and +6, inclusive. This is the first threshold of keystones where the affixes faced are one of four possible Xal’atath’s Bargain (added at +2) and either Fortified or Tyrannical (alternating each week, added at +4). For the above graph, the affixes were Xal’atath’s Bargain: Devour and Fortified.

We are definitely starting to see a clear consolidation of preferred group compositions, as the top 5 comps all share 4 of the same specs, with the final 5th DPS slot being the difference-maker. This “core” of Protection Warrior, Restoration Shaman, Frost Death Knight, and Retribution Paladin has also expanded beyond the lower keystone range and is now fairly pervasive across all keystone levels save for the highest dungeons.

Keystone Levels: +7 to +11

This graph shows the top 5 group compositions used during Week 4 for timed Keystones between levels +7 and +11, inclusive. This is the second threshold of keystones where the affixes faced are the same as the first level range, with Xal’atath’s Bargain: Devour,
Fortified, and the new addition of Challenger’s Peril.

We continue to see the “core” 4 specs dominating the Leaderboards for this keystone range, being Protection Warrior, Restoration Shaman, Frost Death Knight, and
Retribution Paladin. As the +7 to +11 range does often act as a bridge to the +12 and up dungeons, we do see Augmentation Evokers start to shine here as well.

Surprisingly enough for Week 4 is a new entry into the top 5 group compositions: Balance Druid!

It should also be noted that the number of dungeons completed has increased dramatically between Weeks 3 and 4 for this level range, giving us an even better sample size of the most popular group compositions.

Keystone Levels: +12 and Up

This graph shows keystones completed at levels +12 and up, which is where the affix situation changes dramatically. Xal’atath’s Bargain gets replaced with
Xal’atath’s Guile, which removes the beneficial aspects of the affix and makes enemies 20% more difficult. Challenger’s Peril remains, and additionally both Fortified and   Tyrannical are present. At +12 and up, Mythic+ dungeons do not change from week to week, so their difficulty remains the same. It will be very interesting to see how these statistics change as the Season progresses!

We’ve been keeping an eye on the number of dungeons completed in time at +12 and higher each week, and we have now seen an absolutely dramatic increase as Week 4 finishes up. In Week 1, there were only 30 dungeons in total completed at +12 and higher, and in Week 2, there were over 400. Week 3 saw a jump up to just over 1500. Now that we’ve closed out Week 4, we have over 13,000 dungeons completed in time at keystone level 12 and up. That is truly remarkable!

The “core” group of specs from the previous keystone ranges are for the most part consistent once we hit the +12 and up range, with the exception that the Retribution Paladins are mostly replaced with Augmentation Evokers. We do, however, see Retribution Paladins in this graph this week, as well as our first… Balance Druid??

Interestingly enough, the tank class that had been responsible for the most popular group composition in this graph until this point, the Vengeance Demon Hunter, has dropped down significantly in popularity.

Keystone Levels: +12 and Up (Overall Season)

As the affixes for keystone levels +12 and up are static from week to week, we will be including the above graph each week in the Data Dive series to show the top 5 group compositions for this level range for the Season Overall. It will be interesting to see how this particular graph changes throughout the Season!

Success Rates by Dungeon

In this new addition to the Data Dive, we examine how often groups were able to successfully time each of the Dungeons available in Season 1, at various keystone levels. Instead of looking at the same keystone ranges as above, we will now hone in on some specific levels that players may be targeting for rewards.

To illustrate the Success Rates, we are using a Box Plot graph.


We wanted to introduce these graphs indicating Success Rate by Dungeon because we believe they can help your dungeon groups make informed decisions. If your goal is to time any dungeon at level +9 or +10 to get Gilded Crests and/or Mythic-level gear, or if you’re trying to get Heroic-level gear at +7, these graphs can help you determine which dungeons will statistically give you the higher chances of success!

WHAT DOES THIS DATA MEAN FOR ME?

If your goal is to complete keystones at +9 to earn as many Gilded Crests as possible or at +10 for Mythic-level Vault gear, then this data suggests that you might want to try and target Mists of Tirna Scithe and The Dawnbreaker for the highest chances of success. Ara-Kara, City of Echoes also looks to have a strong success rate, but you’ll want to take notice of the Whiskers for this dungeon. There’s a lot of variance in success – meaning that if you head to Ara-kara, you have a good chance of timing the dungeon, but you could also have a very rough go, depending on your group. It is certainly not a “free” key in any sense of the word.

Keep in mind that, until level +12, each week includes a different Xal’atath’s Bargain affix, so one week’s data may not necessarily carry over. It is, however, a good starting point!

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HOW TO INTERPRET BOX PLOT GRAPHS

The X-Axis shows Time Remaining as % of Dungeon Timer. As 0% means a dungeon was completed, in-time, at the exact timer (00:00:00 time remaining), higher numbers (5% and up) mean that the dungeon was completed with time remaining. The higher the number, the faster the dungeon was completed by percentage of the timer. Dungeons on the left of 0% were thus depleted, and where they land on the X-Axis shows by what percentage of the timer they were depleted.

The box in the middle of each bar shows the Inter Quartile Range, or IQR. This is where the middle 50% of dungeons fall. If the box is small, it indicates that dungeon completion times were very consistent. If the box is large, it means there is greater variability in completion times.

The line in the middle of the box represents the Median Clear Time. If this line is closer to the left of the box, this indicates the distribution is skewed towards slower times, and vice versa.

The Whiskers, the lines that come out of each side of the box, indicate the range of the data outside the IQR (the middle 50% of all dungeons completed). This shows how far the data spreads. If the Whiskers are long, it suggests there is a wide range of dungeon clear times, suggesting the performance varies more. Shorter Whiskers indicate more consistent results, and if they are asymmetrical, it shows that the data is skewed in a particular direction (depleted vs. completed in-time).

Outliers are singular dungeons that fall way out of the range. We have only chosen to show positive outliers, meaning dungeons that were completed significantly faster than the average. Those are represented by a dot, should they exist.

Insights

We’ve seen Retribution Paladins fairly regularly in these top group compositions for keystone ranges from +2 to +11. They are, and have long been, a strong choice for AoE damage, survivability, and utility. However, up until this past week (Week 4), they were few and far between in the +12 and up range. In fact, we saw everything from Shadow Priests, Fire Mages, and Balance Druids before we saw Retribution Paladins in the most popular group comps.

So what happened between Weeks 3 and 4 to result in this massive upsurge in
Retribution Paladins at the highest keystone levels? Well, it’s the age-old story of buffs, buffs, and more buffs. That’s right, the Templar hero talent tree got some massive buffs, making their damage viable (and sought-after) in the highest dungeons.

In last week’s Class Tuning, the Templar tree received significant buffs. Most notably being a big increase to the damage of Empyrean Hammer, including by way of the buffs to
Wrathful Descent. This provides passive AoE while still maintaining strong single-target damage, a highly-valued damage pattern in Mythic+.



Keeping in mind the significant utility and survivability of Retribution Paladins, it seems that their damage profile was the only thing keeping them back in the highest keys – but with the recent buffs, we’re seeing a shift, and for good reason.

Invite those Retribution Paladins to your keys… you won’t regret it!

Stay tuned for more Data Dives, coming soon!

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